Buck Up, Little Obama Camper. The Obama Campaign Isn’t A Corpse, Yet

It’s easy to flip out. Goodness knows things look crazy out there with that lipstick wearing, Hockey mom pitbull from the tundra running around like a Lifetime movie meets Annie Get Your Gun meets Yosemite Sam in stilettos.

The media, now fully distracted by her pregnant daughter, Alaska separatist husband and her love of killing animals, has forgotten things like — there are two wars going on and that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may be beyond repair or that the housing crisis and job losses remain.

No. We need the 24-hour Gov. Sarah Palin reality show. And that’s what she is, “The Hills” with snow boots, a sober version of “The Anna Nicole Show.”

And in this media splurge on Palin, everyone is mumbling and grumbling over the fate of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. People are wondering if there will be enough money and if pro-Obama 527 will be able to ride to Obama’s aid. McCain is now leading Obama in some polls (like the crazy USA Today/Gallup Poll that has McCain up by 10 points). In other polls they’re virtually tied.

So I’ve been hearing a lot of this:

He blew it. He should have picked Hillary for veep!

And a lot of that:

He still can’t get votes in rural white areas! He can’t win Ohio! If he can’t win Ohio he loses!

And quite a bit of this:

(W)ith Barack Obama we get a guy with a funny name. We get a black. We get a guy who spent a lot of time on that creepy south side of Chicago. He went to a strange church where people clapped. We get a guy who somehow might even have been touched in some obscure way by Muslims. We get Michelle Obama as first lady. The picture isn’t Norman Rockwell.

To ignore the fact that there is latent prejudice in the country, and this election, is not honest — and the strategists behind the Republican campaign know this. How is the best way to play it? To do so overtly would backfire.

Obama is not one of us works. This may seem benign, but it is incredibly powerful, and it is being played every day in every way. Virtually the entire Republican convention, with virtually every speech, was built around the biographies of the candidates; issues were barely discussed. What matters was: They are one of us; and Obama fits the wrong template. Subtle, but ugly. (“How and why the Republicans will win,” Minnesota Post)

Now, before the Obama-maniacs start committing mass suicide over the possibility of a “Four More Wars” and moose burgers presidency, I’d like to offer some evidence that things aren’t nearly as dire as they seem.

National polls don’t matter.

US elections aren’t determined by the popular vote. Former Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000 and it didn’t do a damn thing for him. What matters is the electoral college and on that map the prospects for Obama look brighter.

Political blog Wonkette crunched the state-by-state numbers and found that Obama is at a likely 243 electoral votes and John McCain is at 194. All is left are the toss up states, and Wonkette came up with several scenarios of how Obama could get to the magic number 270 with his current lead.

The safest route is still this: Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico + Colorado. It seems doubtful that New Hampshire, a New England state, would go for any Republican in this particular election, even if WALNUTS! has won its primary twice …

Michigan has no freaking business voting for MCCAIN, the guy who told them in January that their jobs were never coming back. And since Michigan and New Hampshire seemed like the only two possible states to lose from the Kerry coalition, well, enough of that.

Iowa seems safe … New Mexico looks solid too … So then Barry simply has to win Colorado … Or he could pull off Florida … because if you’re looking at the Pollster map, 243 + 27 = a happy number.

Or he could win Kerry states + Virginia + Iowa or Nevada or Colorado or like any other random state. Or he could lose Colorado and instead win Nevada & Montana — where Ron Paul is on the ballot!

And in case you haven’t noticed, all of the above scenarios exclude freaking Ohio. And if you had to make a bet, in a Democratic year, well…

And if that doesn’t make you feel better, consider this —

Just who are they talking to for these national polls?

If your cell phone is your primary phone, not you. They’re relying on land line, residential phones. Numbers listed in phone books and voters records. They’re missing millions of people, especially those in their 20s, 30s and 40s who have switched to cellphone only lifestyles. People with land lines tend to be older and older people tend to be more conservative, tilting the polls in McCain’s favor.

Go deep into the polling data!

Crack open a poll and you might like what you see inside. In the newly released NBC/Wa
ll Street Journal Poll
McCain leads 45-46, but the margin of error is three. The Democratic Party still has a higher favorable rating (49-40); Obama voters are still more enthusiastic (88-78); Obama is seen as more likely to bring change (55-32); And 74 percent of respondent still see McCain as closely tied to the policies of President George W. Bush.

Also if the Democrats still have the higher favorable rating there still continues to be this phenomenon —

More Democrats have registered to vote than Republicans

The Huffington Post reported that there are 11 million new Democratic voters. How do you get this McCain tie-slight lead when there are more Democrats registered to vote than Republicans?

Some polling experts say the changing state of party affiliation in the field is slow to be reflected in polls themselves. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg told the Huffington Post that “when it comes to registration and turnout, the polls often do a very bad job of taking those [factors] into account,” because newly registered voters aren’t in the voter files used by firms that survey public opinion. “You could make the argument they are under-representing new registrants,” she said, which would mean that the Democrats new edge would not be taken into account. (“Poll Madness: McCain Takes Lead Even As Democrats Out Register Republicans,”Huffington Post)

The Associated Press also reported that during the primary season “more than 2 million Democrats [were added] to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states.”

Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.

The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states.

Since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000. (USA Today/Associated Press, “Democrats post big gains in voter registration“)

Don’t count Obama-Biden out for the big fight

I don’t know if you’ve heard but there are some debate coming up between Obama and McCain, as well as Biden and Palin. This is going to be appointment television with stakes this high and both Obama and Biden stand an excellent chance of rising to the occasion (and rising their poll numbers).

Obama got a lot of debate training with Hillary Clinton as his sparing partner. They’d been jibbing and jabbing since last summer. As long as Obama gives pithy, concise and cleverly memorable answers (no Kerry-esque rambling), he could easily charm his way all over an oft flustered old man who doesn’t photograph well on television. While McCain has the ability to bust out the occasional rousing sound bite, he can also be a bumbling, buzz word bombing mess.

As for Palin, despite everyone saying Sen. “Mad Dog” Joe Biden can’t let it rip over her is a little silly. The woman declared herself to be a pitbull in lipstick. That’s “grrl” power code for “Bring it on” and Biden should bring it. While Palin is a bright, quick study who has mastered the teleprompter, she did not spend nearly six months last year debating Hillary Clinton.

She can do her foreign policy cram lessons, but Biden doesn’t just talk foreign policy, he lives it as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

So lets put down the cyanide pills and get our heads out of the ovens. All is not lost. While a win can never be guaranteed we can, as Jesse said, “keep hope alive.” Palin is a mere “Trojan Moose,” as described by Arianna Huffington. She’s a trick to distract us from the issues that matter and from the real battle that matters. Palin isn’t running for president, John McCain is. We need to keep reminding people that because last time I checked Obama’s premature corpse of a campaign is still more popular than the walking corpse of John McCain.

33 thoughts on “Buck Up, Little Obama Camper. The Obama Campaign Isn’t A Corpse, Yet

  1. I’m ashamed to say it – I too was feeling depressed about “Moosolini” and the polls. But I’m putting away my Oreos and getting out of bed. It’s not over yet!!

  2. Again, you make me feel better. I think one of your most salient points, and something I thought about this weekend watching George Step interview Obama: Obama should do very well in the debates, because he is very good at not letting moderators/opponents evade questions or trap him in questions. You can tell he’s a lawyer. He’s very precise with answers and very good at not succumbing to loaded questions. And, seriously, Biden is going to pwn Palin, unless the moderator throws softballs, which I doubt Ifill will do.

  3. Whew! Thanks for that pep talk!! I was getting worried because of these twilight zone headlines about McCain/Palin leading in the polls. We will bounce back!

  4. Snob.I can’t wait for the debates. They should rip Palin and McSame to shreds!And you’re right about landlines. All I use is my cell phone… I haven’t needed a landline in years…

  5. Snob I know you have recommend the following blogs in the past but I honestly don’t like the tone over at Field Negro and WOAD…you would think that they would be a little bit more optimistic…but no….all I keep reading about are their rants about why Obama’s not gonna win and it just riles my nerves something terrible.Bloggers need to realize that they have more influence than they think and it pisses me off when they aren’t considerate about the words that hit their digital screens. There is a thin line between being opportunistic, short-sighted, a career builder, and being plain jealous. Think: Tavis Smiley.I been stop reading WOAD. She’s the pits over there*Rant Over*

  6. Thank you Snob I needed the pump up and long view reality check. I’ve been reading waay too much Huffington Post, Americablog, FN, etc. The McCain Palin dog and pony show is very toxic if you over expose yourself to it for too long. I’m back to reading you and technical stuff to ease my mind. My wife and I are taking Nov 4th and 5th off from work for a day of celebration or mourning, either way there is no way I could concentrate on the job anyway

  7. wow! thanks! i was starting to feel pretty sad about the campaign too. i keep finding new McCain/Palin fans …even though they’re more for Palin than McCain :-/ …nevertheless, your piece was very thorough and encouraging. thanks!

  8. Abso-damn-lutely!!All of this emotional handwringing is the only reason I keep blogging myself – if I hear one more “what’s your boy going to do now” I will do a citizens arrest and try to deport the son of bitch for failure to use their brain.When you are thinking globally, not locally, as the Obama campaign head honchos have done for the past two years, the little things like soundbites are just little things, and the big things, like the biggest voter registration drive in the history of this country (which is a boring, unsexy, not worth a reporter’s time type thing) are the kind of BIG THINGS that can trump the existence of the many bigoted and frightened people in this country who can’t wrap their mnd around a b…b-l…b-l…b-l-a-c-k…hell, they can’t even say it out loud.You know at least one of those 8 million black people who are not registered to vote – so register them!

  9. ITA w/jmee — great post, Snob. I put a link to your blog in my FB status line. I’ve got my finger on the remote to DVR that debate. It’s going to be soooo good.

  10. Snob, you have the gift of the digital pen that makes the reader not only think deeply, bust out laughing…but also to jump out of the ridiculous boxes we find ourselves trapped in, as we fall prey to the smoke screens, from time to time…Thanks, Snob, you deserve all your awards and so much more!!!

  11. The whole thing is depressing me a bit. I shouldn’t be so pessimistic because the election period is actually just starting. But the media is making it as though Obama has lost or something. I just really want this and I am really feeling hatred for that Alaskan well…bitch. I think I absolutely hate her. If feminists vote for her just because she is a woman they will lose whatever respect I had for them (not much respect really) and I will have nothing to do with them ever again. I will believe everything I have read about them being just white women supremacists. I cant stand the Alaskan bitch’s voice. How can people fall for her???

  12. People are being way too hasty. McCain has the election and Palin bump.The Polls R starting 2 settle down 2 something reasonable. McCain’s lead was never as high as Barack’s after the Democratic Convention. Also, in the poll of polls McCain’s lead is falling.Poll of Pollshttp://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/There won’t B a fairly clear picture about whose ahead until a few days before the election. This is no where near over. Loved his comment today. She has been running her mouth for 2 weeks with very little opposition. Democrats can’t run to keep feminists happy.

  13. OH YE OF LITTLE FAITH!The race is not given to the swift, but to he that endures to the end!Polls mean nothing to me, I’m listening to the folks on the ground, it’s that ground game of the Obama campaign that will win this election, people are registering to vote in unheard of numbers and that’s what has the McCain camp trotting out the kitchen sink approach, but that’s what you do when you can’t run on the issues. There are states in play that never would have been if not for the ground game. Something is indeed stirring, but you have to be able to hear above all the noise, I hear it, but better than that I see it in the face of the Republicans.God Bless!

  14. Aren’t you just putting lipstick on a pig here? Sorry, I’m getting tired of this bitch and everyone telling us how sexist people are being without being sexist. I feel like she is single handedly bringing down the women’s movement one speech at a time.

  15. Bravo! People are looking at Palin as if she is the savior. (This whole thing reminds me of some type of movie script–i.e., “Wag the Dog.”) She is the VP pick not the presidential candidate. She is a distraction to make the Obama supporters afraid and throw in their towels long before the real fight even begins. That RNC “bump” may not last. We need to hang tight and do whatever little bit we each can do so we don’t have four more years of the last eight.And as far as “putting lipstick on a pig,” I say if the shoe fits wear it–if not, the GOP shouldn’t be whining about it.

  16. I’ve been listening to talk radio and old person after old person have been saying the same damn thing, “I’ve never been polled! No one has ever called my house!”The polls are a waste. CNN’s polls of polls is bull-. They just need something for Campbell Brown’s crappy election show and the rest of SPIN media to ANALYZE to DEATH.We OBAMA folks need to calm the hell down.Keep registering people AND focus on……oh yeah JOHNNY BOY, who’s intentionally diverting the attention away from himself.You can’t hide behind Caribou Barbie til Nov.

  17. all: Well, I’m glad I wrote this. I guess we all needed a little pep talk and some perspective. I was feeling a little sick of the Palin Pandemic (and physically ill from a nasty cold … but Palin was probably behind that too), and my interest was piqued when I read the Wonkette article.I also see that we all are going through a little “I Hate Sarah Palin” psycho-drama. God knows I am. I can’t stand looking at her to be honest, mostly because I know she’s a fraud, but that she’s a good enough fraud people who vote based on their “gut” and not ISSUES will fall for her Annie Oakley redux routine.And txbabe? That Caribou Barbie line? I am soooo stealing it.Anyway, people NEED to be reminded they will be electing ol’ Grumpy Gramps, not Annie Oakley and that the race is between Grumpy Gramps and Hopey McChangey. Win or lose, I’m backing McChangey. Grumpy can call himself whatever he wants, but there’s only one Hopey McChangey. You can’t convince me someone that old and entrenched is a “change agent.”Wal-Mart greeter maybe. But change agent, I think not.

  18. If you need to be calmed down, go over to The Field, and read Al Giordano.People, they want you to be discouraged, because they know the truthYOU are Barack Obama’s greatest weapon.YOUYour enthusiasm. Your dedication.Get thee to your local Obama office and volunteer your heart out.This will be won on the ground.

  19. The Primaries and conventions were just the pre-season.The appropriate cuts were made and the starting line-ups are now formed. One bad play or one lost game won’t ruin the season.As long as Obama/Biden remain focused on their goal – they’ll win.(Oh, and; USC 47 – Florida 13 in the BCS title game)

  20. Thanks for the laugh…love this post. I think I might even be feeling a little bit better now myself. (lol!) I was going to pull an "Open Water" and go walk across the street and drown myself in Lake Michigan if Palin & Co. win–but hopefully I won't have to do that. Great point about the cell phones (and as a result, a lot of the younger voters).

  21. Sorry, Danielle, I’m of little faith. If Obama were Jesus praying in the Garden of Gethsemane, I would be one of the disciples fast asleep. I watched the electoral map breakdown on TV, and I know people are saying Obama still has a chance. But have you seen those huge Nuremberg rallies McCain and Palin are holding? Years ago they used to promote a boxer as “The Great White Hope.” To many, I think Palin is seen that way. She came just in time to stop Obama. Peace and love always

  22. Thanks for this. And you wrote it while sick. How impressive. It’s good to have a little shot of reality. I can’t wait to watch Letterman tonight. I am so sick of the Rethugs and their corporate media henchmen but the prize is ours for the taking!!!!

  23. Thank you Snob for shedding some light on the matter of polls. I have never given much weight to them because no one has ever called me and asked my opinion.(And I have a landline) Nor has anyone I know been called, for that matter. I’d believe a psychic over a poll any day…..ValJoyner

  24. Thank you, Snob, for providing the slap in the face the panicky Obama supporters needed. I watched the GOP convention. I’ve watched the McLame-Paler dog and pony show. And I’ve been disgusted by the GOP’s politics of distraction. That has not discouraged me. Au contraire! It only served to energize me to get some skin in the game and volunteer for Team Obama.Who and how many do I have to kneecap to make sure Obama wins?Bourgietopia

  25. Snob,I live in Indiana, a state that’s been red since before I was born, and I really think it might go blue this year. I’ve been talking to a lot of little old white ladies who come into my job who hate Sarah Palin and everything she stands for and saw right through her selection. These are women who I would swear vote Repub, and everyone knows that old people vote.

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